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Sunday, 25 May 2014

Predicted BNP percentage of UKIP vote for EU elections 2014 based on local election results


  1. Stockport Bredbury & Woodley: Andy Webster BNP 89, Richard Ellis UKIP 834 - 10%
  2. Stockport Bredbury Green & Romley:  Tony Dean BNP 60, Brian Stanyer UKIP 784 - 7%
  3. Stockport Brinnington & Central: Brenda Waterhouse BNP 93, Michael Buxton UKIP 633 - 14%
  4. Stockport Manor: Duncan Noel Warner BNP 67, John Howard Kelly UKIP 660 - 10 %
  5. Bolton Tonge with the Haulgue: Dorothee Sayers BNP 109,  Derek Fisher UKIP 1053 - 10%
  6. Manchester Moston: Stephen Carden BNP 153, Nigel Houston UKIP 1406 - 10%
  7. Pendle Marsden: Brian Norton Parker BNP 339, Christine Stables UKIP 154 - 220%
  8. Salford Irwell Riverside Gary Tumulty BNP 73, Janice Taylor 464 - 15%
  9. Salford Langworthy Kay Pollitt BNP 86, Andy Olsen UKIP 884 - 9%
  10. Salford Pendlebury Eddy O'Sullivan BNP 122, Paul Frank Doyle UKIP 872 - 13%
  11. Tameside Droylsden East: Robert Charles Booth 236, Ted Salmon UKIP 480 - 49%
  12. Tameside Drolesden West: Ian Connor BNP 106, Tracy Radcliffe UKIP 971 - 10%
  13. Wigan Abram: Dennis Shambley BNP 134, Janet Markland UKIP 760 - 17%
  14. Amber Valley Codnor & Waingroves: Alan Edward BNP 39, Ann Fox UKIP 395 - 9%
  15. Amber Valley Ripley: Ken Cooper BNP 80, Garry Alan Smith UKIP 612 - 13%
  16. Derby Chaddesden: Paul Hilliard BNP 136, Tony Crawley UKIP 987 - 13%
  17. Derby Derwent: Carol Tucker BNP 84, Bill Wright  UKIP 884 - 9%
  18. Birmingham Erdington: Frances Waldron BNP 66, Mel Ward UKIP 703 - 9%
  19. Birmingham Kingstanding: Frances Theresa Burke BNP 92, Jan Higgins UKIP 1128 - 8%
  20. Birmingham Shard End: Kevin Anthony McHugh BNP 134, Iain Roden UKIP 1754 - 7%
  21. Coventry Bablake: Mark Badrick BNP 74, Paul Robert McNamara UKIP 929 - 7%
  22. Coventry Binley & Willenhallm: David Clarke BNP 108, Colin Aldous Stubbs UKIP 1134 - 9%
  23. Coventry Henley: Rose Morris BNP 109, Jim Bench UKIP 1124 - 9%
  24. Coventry Longford: Frankie Bates BNP 78, Eugene Austin UKIP 1051- 7%
  25. Coventry Lower Stoke: Keith Oxford BNP 70, Ivor Harold Davies UKIP 938 - 7%
  26. Coventry Sherbourne: Mark Graham BNP 73, Glyn Gordon Davies UKIP 937  - 7%
  27. Coventry Upper Stoke: John Paul Hurren BNP 94, Avtar Taggar UKIP 809 - 11%
  28. Coventry Whoberley: Leisel Dawn Wagstaff BNP 54, Brian Legge UKIP 775 - 6%
  29. Coventry Woodlands: Hunter Hurtsley Helmsley BNP 69, Peter John Morris UKIP 885 - 7%
  30. Dudley Coseley East: Ken Griffiths BNP 123, Star Etheridge UKIP 1,200 - 10%
  31. Walsall Birchills-Leamore: Bob Ball BNP 140, Edmunds Gary UKIP 854 - 16%
  32. Wolverhampton Bushbury North: Simon Geoffery Patten BNP 116, Susan Bem UKIP 1014 - 11%
  33. Wolverhampton Spring Vale: David Bradnock BNP 64, Malcolm Gwinnett UKIP 1251- 5%
  34. Worcester Battenhall: Jennifer May Whitwam BNP 16, Jackie Burnett UKIP 224 - 7%
  35. Worcester Bedwardine: Timothy Stephen Whitwam BNP 37, Martyn Clifford Wheeler UKIP 637 - 5%
  36. Worcester Cathedral: Andrew Robert North BNP 24, Hazel May Finch UKIP 367 - 6%
  37. Worcester Gorse Hill: Ashley Edward Bradley BNP 31, John Francis UKIP 390 - 7%
  38. Worcester Rainbow Hill: Alan James Draper BNP 36, David Paul Carney UKIP 359 - 10%
  39. Worcester St John: Linda Mary Bell BNP 30, Richard Guy Delingpole UKIP 521 - 5%
  40. Worcester Warndon: Julie Whitwam BNP 32, James Alexander Goad UKIP 407 - 7%
  41. Barking & Dagenham Eastbrook:  Anthony McKay BNP 222 + Paul  Paul Leslie William Sturdy BNP 166, Jonathan Roland Gay UKIP 960 + Richard Edward Kelly UKIP 1102 - 18%
  42. Barking & Dagenham: Bob Taylor BNP 469, Alan Arthur Kiff UKIP 1023 - 45%
  43. Bexley Barnehurst: Paul Hulme BNP 89, Harry Buttar UKIP 1065 + Mike Ferro UKIP 1153 + Barrie Thomas UKIP 1125 - 2%
  44. Bexley Belvedere: Brian Haslam BNP 328, Catherine Reilly UKIP 1130 - 29%
  45. Bexley Blackfen & Lamorbey: Chris Wait BNP 387, Lynn Smith UKIP 1225 - 31%
  46. Bexley Blendon & Penhill: Erin Bradley BNP 390, Martin Harradine UKIP 1289 - 30%
  47. Bexley Brampton:  Maureen Slaughter BNP 268, John Dunford UKIP 1280 - 20%
  48. Bexley Christchurch: Ben Scott BNP 241, Rick Millward UKIP 1090 - 22%
  49. Bexley Colyers: Peter Finch BNP 383, Mac McGannon UKIP 1112 - 34%
  50. Bexley Cray Meadows: John Brooks BNP 262, Steve Reader UKIP 1029 - 25%
  51. Bexley Danson Park: Ronald Slaughter BNP 295, Malcolm Clarke UKIP 1094 - 26%
  52. Bexley East Wickham: Nicola Finch BNP 346 + Michael Jones BNP 381 +  Jaymie McCoy BNP 216, Rob Comley UKIP 1020 + John Patrick Fennelly UKIP 944 - 48%
  53. Bexley Erith: Robert David BNP 323, Keith Forster UKIP 987 - 32%
  54. Bexley Falconwood & Welling: Jimmy Dobson BNP 398, Pamela Perrin UKIP 1271- 31%
  55. Bexley Lesnes Abbey: Carl Bussey BNP 284, Chris Attard UKIP 1137 - 24%
  56. Bexley Sidcup: Lucy Ann Money BNP 181, Colin Burnell UKIP 897 - 20%
  57. Bexley St Michael's: Laurence Picton BNP 407, Chris Beazley UKIP 1280 - 31%
  58. Bromley Cray Valley West: Roger Tonks BNP 139, David Livett UKIP 1,245 + Terence Nathan UKIP 1,202 - 5%
  59. Bromley Cray Valley East: Deborah Kane BNP 284, Mick Greenhough UKIP 1,172 - 24%
  60. Bromley Mottingham & Chislehurst North: Philip Dalton BNP 181, Karen Thomson UKIP 770 - 23%
  61. Croydon Fieldway: David Clarke BNP 210, John Clarke BNP 212, Bill Eastoe UKIP 686 - 61%
  62. Croydon Heathfield: Michael Collard BNP 285, Crispin Williams UKIP 1185 - 24%
  63. Croydon New Addington: Clifford Le May BNP 168 + Donna Treanor BNP 80, Clive Christensen UKIP 740 + Christopher Johnson UKIP 639 -17%
  64. Ealing Northolt Mandeville: David Smith BNP 234, Bryan Ashley James Parry UKIP 734 - 31%
  65. Ealing Northolt West End: David Furness BNP 362, Roy Thomas Jeffrey Schofield UKIP 814 - 44%
  66. Enfield Enfield Lock: Jason Keogh BNP 296, Sharon Downer UKIP 829 - 35%
  67. Enfield Southbury: Marie Nicholas BNP 233, Fred Rolph UKIP 719 - 32%
  68. Enfield Turkey Street: Stephen Squire BNP 278, Gary Robbens UKIP 805 - 34%
  69. Greenwich Coldharbour and New Eltham: Clifford Baxter Adams BNP 401, Peter Robin Whittle UKIP 1,137 - 35%
  70. Greenwich Eltham North: Roberta Florence Louise Woods BNP 307, Paul Stephen Butler UKIP 1,221 - 25%
  71. Greenwich Eltham South: Thelma Grace Peete BNP 248, John Robert Evans UKIP 1,069 - 23%
  72. Greenwich Eltham West: Paul Ramsay BNP 314, Ryan Matthew John Acty UKIP 856 - 36%
  73. Greenwich Middle Park and Sutcliffe: Nick Scanlon BNP 313, Raymond Adams UKIP 913 - 34%
  74. Havering Gooshays: Ray Underwood BNP 247, David Johnson UKIP 1848 + Lawrence James Webb UKIP 1790 + Patricia Ann Rumble UKIP 1733 - 4%
  75. Havering Heaton: Kevin Layzell BNP 556, Philip Joseph Hyde UKIP 1549 + Ian De Wulverton UKIP 1506 - 18%
  76. Hillingdon South Ruislip: Gavin Cardy BNP 223, Alan Foster UKIP 649 +  Martin Shelvey UKIP 651- 17%%
  77. Hillingdon Yiewsley: Vincent Evans BNP 304, Jason Ponty UKIP 892 - 34%
  78. Kingston Upon Thames St James: David Child BNP100, Linda WinifredHolligan UKIP 386 + Bona Watson UKIP 361 - 13%
  79. Exeter Priory: Chris Stone  BNP 38, Nicola Guagliardo UKIP 721 - 5%
I predict the BNP will receive 18-21% of the UKIP vote in the 2014 EU elections.  

It received 37% of the vote in the 2009 EU elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Great_Britain

Eddy Butler, the former National Organiser of the BNP and their elections guru disagrees:

"It won't - the wards you are using as a comparison are among  the most favourable for the BNP and the BNP will have usually done some local work to back up their campaign - in the rest of the country they won't have that benefit - Hence 10%.

UKIP will get about 30-35%.

If the BNP get 20% of that they will get 6-7% of the total vote - the same as last time. They will get half that - 3% less than 10% of the UKIP vote - your methodology is wrong."



I don't suppose it matters really, because UKIP has now become The New BNP judging by the way Hope Not Hate, UAF etc are carrying on.

We can work out the extent of the unofficial merger when we know the exact number of votes UKIP and the BNP received so we can work out the percentage to which the BNP has merged with UKIP since 2009.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Results

The BNP vote was only 4% UKIP's. 96% of what could have been the BNP's vote went to UKIP because of Nick Griffin's reluctance to give up racism, Islamphobia and antisemitism and because he did not make the BNP exclusively and exclusively civic nationalist. That is the extent of his failure because he wanted to cling to his core supporters who are lower class racists and losers

Mark Collett:

"All those nationalists who are complaining that UKIP were the primary beneficiaries of the anti-immigration and anti-EU vote should lay the blame at the feet of those responsible. If the BNP had modernised like the FN, the FPO and the Danish People’s Party then they would have dominated that section of the political spectrum. There would have been no room for UKIP to grow. Instead Griffin and his stooges kept the BNP on the fringe of UK politics with hard line talk, media gaffes and political decisions that stopped the party stepping into the mainstream. This created a vacuum for a popular, sensible and electable patriotic party, that vacuum was ably filled by UKIP."

The BNP vote in 2005 is only 14% of its vote in 2009. Even Mike Nattrass's new party got more votes than it did.

The UKIP vote increased by 57%.

The vote for the pathetic English Democrats has been reduced by 45%.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm not interested in the BNP's election results, can we get a post about the California shootings instead? Already at the Guardian they are saying that "misogyny kills":

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/24/elliot-rodgers-california-shooting-mental-health-misogyny

Anonymous said...

Here's a 141-page manifesto as well:

http://abclocal.go.com/three/kabc/kabc/My-Twisted-World.pdf

It's always exciting when mass killers release manifestos. It's been done before with Breivik et al.

Anonymous said...

Reading Elliott Rodgers' manifesto again, there are definitely echoes here of what Simon Sheppard wrote in The Tyranny of Ambiguity...

Claire Khaw said...

Here it is at http://thevoiceofreason-ann.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-first-two-parts-of-this-diagram-was.html