The difference between "should" and "is likely to"

Stephan Schneider, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, comments on the German government's ability to fund a rescue.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8509000/8509850.stm

He was asked by the interviewer: "What should happen?"

His answer: "The correct question is to ask what is likely to happen." [c 3.27]

"Should" and "ought" contain moral assumptions - these are invariably subjective.

"Likely to" is uncompromisingly objective.

A skilled politician knows the difference and thinks, speaks and acts accordingly.